Braley campaign manager calls Iowa Poll an ‘outlier’

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Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Braley’s campaign manager offered reaction tonight in reaction to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Here’s Sarah Benzing’s statement:

“With the exception of today’s outlier, every single poll of Iowa voters in the last few days has shown this race to be a dead heat heading into Election Day with clear movement in Bruce’s direction. Our campaign’s modeling of the electorate shows that Bruce is headed to victory on the strength of his clear and significant lead among early voters, the superior Democratic ground efforts that will drive far greater numbers of supporters to the polls, and his strong and consistent lead among independent voters.

Poll Braley Ernst Spread
10/31 YouGov 43 42 Braley +1
10/31 Fox News 44 45 Ernst +1
10/31 Rasmussen 47 48 Ernst +1
10/31 CNN 47 49 Ernst +2
10/30 Reuters/Ipsos 45 45 Tied
10/29 GarinHartYang 47 47 Tied
10/28 Loras College 45 44 Braley +1

“While the Ernst campaign knows that this race is tight and is actively preparing for a recount, we plan to win on Tuesday night and our staff and thousands of volunteers are hard at work across the state making sure Bruce’s supporters are hearing from us in the final days and are getting their ballots in.

“There has been a clear and consistent trend in our polling and modeling showing Bruce leading significantly among independents and sporadic voters. We know that the more voters we can pull out in the final days, the stronger Bruce’s returns will be on Tuesday night—and we have dedicated substantial resources to a field operation that has already expanded the electorate and will significantly outperform any Republican efforts to get their voters out in the final days.

“The campaign’s modeling of the early vote returns show clear signs of strength for Bruce heading into Election Day. With over 420,000 votes in already, not only have more Democrats voted than Republicans, but our models show that Bruce has a significant lead among independents who have voted already and those whose ballots we expect to come back, giving him an advantage of over 15,000 votes so far among this group with that number expected to grow in the final days. Bruce is also leading by 22 points among voters who don’t traditionally vote in midterm elections—a critical group that Democrats are successfully working to turn out.

“The early return data shows that while Democrats are dramatically expanding the electorate and bringing in more early votes from voters who didn’t vote in 2010, Republicans are simply pushing their consistent voters to vote early instead of on Election Day. Over 40% of the registered Republicans who have already voted this year voted on Election Day in 2010, meaning that their Election Day numbers are going to be significantly worse this year than in the past. Of the registered Democrats who have voted so far, 20% did not vote in 2010, adding over 32,000 sporadic voters to this year’s election totals heading into the final weekend—and we expect that number to jump significantly in the final days.

“Over the last two weeks, Democrats have outpaced Republicans in generating new vote by mail request forms every single day and have brought in over 60,000 new forms from voters who will be supporting Bruce. Over 25,000 more ballots have been requested by Bruce supporters than Ernst supporters, and we expect our superior ground game to bring those ballots in.

“Ballots continue to pour in from Bruce supporters at a recent rate of over 9,000 a day, and this is expected to double in the final days. Over 50% of the outstanding ballots sent to Bruce supporters have been requested in the last two weeks and we expect the vast majority of them to come in over the final days as our staff and volunteers knock on their doors and call them to remind them to vote.”

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