2018 November General Election Turnout Rates

Last updated: 11/4/18
In advance of the 2018 election, the exit poll team at Edison Media Research and I predict turnout rates for each state, which are needed to for certain aspects of running the exit polls and election night forecasting. These estimates represent our best guess based on the early vote that has been cast and comparable past elections.

Once the election results are reported, I will update this page for the actual election results. I expect to make the first estimates early in the morning on the Wednesday after the election.

The voting-eligible population (VEP) represents an estimate of persons eligible to vote regardless of voter registration status in an election and is constructed by modifying the voting-age population (VAP), by components reported in the right-most columns (scroll right in the spreadsheet). Links to data sources are provided at the bottom of this page.

Questions? Please see the FAQ.

Direct link to spreadsheet.

Notes:

The denominator reflects the July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017 voting-age population estimates extrapolated to Nov. 1, 2018; non-citizen estimates from the 2016 1-Year American Community Survey; the year-end 2016 DOJ prison report; and the year-end 2016 DOJ probation and parole report. The number of felons who are on probation is estimated to be 57% of the total, which based on a DOJ survey; the total probation population is reported in the spreadsheet, and this adjustment is applied to the number of ineligible felons on probation, parole or in prison. Starting in 2010, the citizen prison population is reported. A '0' indicates that either a state
does not disfranchise a class of felons or the state does not
incarcerate felons within their borders (this is true for DC). See The Sentencing Project for more information.

The 2018 overseas eligible population estimate is extrapolated from 2012 and 2014 civilian estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program -- which reports 5.6 million overseas citizens in 2012 and 5.7 in 2014. This estimate is deflated
by 76.0%, which is the percentage of the domestic citizen population that is of
voting age according to the 2015 American Community Survey. Military personnel stationed overseas are added from a June, 2016 Defense Manpower Report. (Note: based on a survey of overseas voters, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that only 45.3% of overseas citizens are of voting age. Pending further investigation, I follow past practice of using an estimate from the domestic civilians.)